Hypothetical Awards Ballots, 2022
I publish this not because I think my thoughts on this very mundane, sports radio kind type of topic are particularly interesting, but because I do enjoy leaving a contemporaneous record of my thoughts, and this is the most convenient place to do so.
AL ROY
1. CF Julio Rodriguez, SEA
2. C Adley Rutschman, BAL
3. LF Steven Kwan, CLE
Rutschman v. Kwan for second place is very close, as Kwan’s extra time in the majors essentially was a wash for Rutschman’s extra rate of offensive production. Both were considered excellent defenders with Kwan taking home a Gold Glove (15 DRS, 3 UZR, 7 RAA to Rutschman’s 18 RAA). They are both older for rookies and were college teammates, although Rutschman was well-known prior to 2022 as a #1 overall pick and top 5 prospect. This could go either way, but all things being equal I’ll take the higher rate of production especially in the ROY discussion.
NY ROY
1. SP Spencer Strider, ATL
2. CF Michael Harris, ATL
3. 2B Brendan Donovan, STL
This was also pretty straightforward, with Strider posting 43 RAR to Harris’ 32. Harris was a strong fielder, but Strider was even better if you looked at peripherals (48 eRAR based on opponent stats and 52 dRAR based on a DIPS approach).
AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander, HOU
2. Alek Manoah, TOR
3. Shohei Ohtani, LAA
4. Dylan Cease, CHA
5. Shane Bieber, CLE
Manoah actually edged Verlander for the RAR lead as he pitched 21 more innings, but Verlander was much eight eRAR and nine dRAR ahead. None of the contenders were near as impressive in dRAR as in standard RAR as the top three were all significantly below the league average in BABIP. Ohtani and Bieber were close to league average and both were significantly ahead of Manoah and Cease in dRAR, but I still give primary consideration to a pitcher’s actual runs and runs allowed. One could easily make a case for Nestor Cortes or Framber Valdez over Bieber.
NL Cy Young
1. Sandy Alcantara, MIA
2. Max Fried, ATL
3. Zac Gallen, ARI
4. Aaron Nola, PHI
5. Yu Darvish, SD
Alcantara’s rate stats were quite comparable to Fried and Gallen, while pitching more than forty innings more than either of them and to me is an easy choice. A DIPS-heavy focus would lead one towards Nola. Darvish got my fifth spot on the slimmest of margins over Corbin Burnes and Carlos Rodon, who had better peripherals.
AL MVP
1. CF Aaron Judge, NYA
2. SP/DH Shohei Ohtani, LAA
3. DH Yordan Alvarez, HOU
4. SP Justin Verlander, HOU
5. 2B Jose Altuve, HOU
6. 3B Jose Ramirez, CLE
7. CF Mike Trout, LAA
8. SP Alek Manoah, TOR
9. 2B Andres Gimenez, CLE
10. SP Dylan Cease, CHA
In the end, all the sound and fury was for naught as Aaron Judge’s 100 RAR supplemented with acceptable center field defense (3 baserunning runs per Fangraphs, 3 DRS, 2 UZR, 2 RAA) outshone Shoehi Ohtani’s 41 RAR as a DH, +3 baserunning, and 51 RAR as a pitcher. Ohtani’s season was extraordinary, even more valuable than least year in which hew as the MVP, and the fact that he flip-flopped which position provided the most value leads one to wonder what would happen if he combined a Cy Young ballot-worthy pitching performance (which he had in 2022, but not in 2021) with a MVP ballot-worthy offensive performance (which he had in 2021, but not in 2022).
But the summer-long conversation about Judge/Ohtani is illustrative of many terrible features of the MVP discourse:
* it starts way too early – the calendar scarcely flips to May before the MVP question starts getting significant airtime
* it gets too much airtime, taking away from trivial matters like which teams might win the pennant
* because it starts too early, it becomes fodder for tribalism and mischaracterization
On this last point, because the discussion starts so prematurely, camps form. This year, the Ohtani and Judge camps formed early. I do not really sit down and analyze the MVP race until the season is over, so I did not have a particularly informed opinion during the initial sparring, but from cursory looks at the statistics, I believe I would have thought Ohtani was more valuable than Judge until late in the summer. But when people vocally support one of the positions in June, it is much harder to reassess as more games are played because one has already attached themselves to a candidate. It appears to be a flip-flop to switch, and when Judge does prevail in the popular opinion at the end, it allows his backers to feel a sense of satisfaction and victory. But typically when the MVP question is posed in the middle of the season, it is not a projection question (i.e. “Which player do you think will be the MVP after the entire season has played out?”). It is more along the lines of “Which player has been the MVP so far?” So there should be absolutely no shame in changing one’s answer to that question as more data emerges. And having backed Judge in June should not give one any sense of satisfaction when Judge does wind up as the MVP in the end.
NL MVP
1. 1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL
2. SP Sandy Alcantara, MIA
3. 1B Freddie Freeman, LA
4. 3B Nolan Arenado, STL
5. SP Max Fried, ATL
6. 3B Manny Machado, SD
7. RF Mookie Betts, LA
8. SP Zac Gallen, ARI
9. SP Aaron Nola, PHI
10. SS Francisco Lindor, NYN
To me, Goldschmidt is a fairly obvious choice as the top position player, leading Freeman 72 to 63 RAR, with both similar in terms of baserunning and fielding metrics and playing the same position. I do not give full credit to fielding metrics, but even full credit using the most favorable metric for Arenado (19 DRS) would leave him slightly behind his teammate as he only had 51 RAR. The real question is whether Alcantara was more valuable than Goldschmidt. He also had 72 RAR, but Goldschmidt’s baserunning (+1) and fielding (2 DRS, 5 UZR, -4 RAA) suggest a little bit of value not encapsulated there. And looking at peripherals, Alcantara’s DIPS were not as strong as his actual runs allowed or non-DIPS peripherals (70 eRAR and 56 dRAR).
To fill out the ballot for position players, after the top four there was a cluster of nine players between 41 and 51 RAR, including the guys who made my ballot plus Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Austin Riley, JT Realmuto, Juan Soto, and Trea Turner. Fielding played a big part in breaking this deadlock, as Betts’ metrics were outstanding and Lindor, already near the top of the pack in RAR, came out good enough in the metrics to make me believe he was more valuable, particularly in a direct comparison to his less defensively-gifted infield teammates.