Hypothetical Award Ballots, 2024
As I’ve explained previously, I post my hypothetical award ballots not because I think they are of any particular interest to anyone else, but rather as a contemporaneous record for myself of how I viewed things. For the most part, I’m following the RAR estimates that I post in my end of season statistics, but adding adjustments for baserunning and fielding (if applicable, equally weighting Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, and Statcast’s RAA, then halving to reflect the lower reliability of estimates of fielding value compared to offense), along with considering peripherals for pitchers (what I call eRA, which is a pitcher’s run average estimated based on actual component statistics, and dRA, which is a DIPS-style estimate of the same).
AL Rookie of the Year
1. SP Luis Gil, NYA
2. LF Colton Cowser, BAL
3. LF Wyatt Langford, TEX
4. RF Wilyer Abreu, BOS
5. C Austin Wells, NYA
A friend who watched Gil’s ALDS start against Cleveland asked me incredulously, “This guy is the favorite for Rookie of the Year?” My explanation that he had started the season strong before appearing to wear down, and that any of the top four NL candidates would likely be the winner if the played in the Junior Circuit was accepted without protest but appeared to fall flat. So it goes with Rookie of the Year sometimes; while there are Cy Youngs and MVPs who fall short of the usual standard, it is never hard to find a candidate who had an excellent season. Sometimes the rookie crop just isn’t that strong. Cowser picks up some credit for his baserunning and fielding, as do Langford, Abreu, and Wells (ok, the catcher was considered only average on the bases by Statcast but his framing metrics were strong). Langford took me by surprise as he had gotten so much preseason hype for his meteoric rise to the majors that his season seemed pedestrian in comparison. He also was primarily a DH early in the season, but in the final analysis I have Cowser ahead of him by just one run (29 total RAR to 28). While Gil is not as strong if you look at DIPS (31 RAR, 31 eRAR, but only 23 dRAR), I don’t think the position players’ performances were strong enough for it to matter.
NL Rookie of the Year
1. SP Paul Skenes, PIT
2. CF Jackson Merrill, SD
3. SP Shoto Imanaga, CHN
4. CF Jackson Chourio, MIL
5. SS Masyn Winn, STL
It felt like a fait accompli that Skenes would be the Rookie of the Year about a month into his tenure, but Merrill kept hitting and the Padres vaulted into the top tier of NL contenders and his stock soared. But sitting down and examining the stats, it’s Skenes for me. Merrill had 39 RAR, plus three for baserunning and another 3 for fielding gets him to a rounded 44, which is Skenes’ dRAR. But Skenes had 50 RAR and 48 eRAR, and while I use replacement level because I think it’s the most appropriate baseline for value comparisons, if you compare to a higher baseline it will only benefit Skenes. Imanaga is in the same boat of DIPS being his least favorable RAR (37, 37, 28), but I have Chourio at 33 and Winn at 30 all-in so I don’t see any reason to change the order.
AL Cy Young
1. Tarik Skubal, DET
2. Seth Lugo, KC
3. Cole Ragans, KC
4. Framber Valdez, HOU
5. Bryce Miller, SEA
Skubal led all AL pitchers in RAR, eRAR, and dRAR – not by tremendous margins (4, 6, and 7 runs), but in each case a different pitcher finished second behind him. That makes Skubal an easy choice for the top of the ballot but makes what comes after something of a mess. A picture is worth a thousand words in this case; here are the RAR figures for the top contenders. I don’t do any formal weighting of these but use my judgment to override the standard RAR list when I think the peripherals warrant it:
As a Guardians fan, I have to point out that I did not seriously consider Emmanuel Clase for the ballot. Some of my fellow fans ardor for Clase’s case has been dulled by his playoff struggles as he took the loss in game 2 of the ALDS and blew the save in game 3 of the ALCS, yielding three homers in those two outings after allowing just two over 263 regular season PA. Clase had 30 RAR, without any leverage credit, while the lowest for any starter on my ballot was 47. That implies, all else equal, that you’d need to credit Clase’s value for a leverage index of 47/30 = 1.57 to pull him equal. Clase’s leverage index per Fangraphs was 2.32 when entering the game. However, if you dilute that 50% due to reliever chaining as Tom Tango has suggested in the past, it would be 1.66 – only slightly above the needed value to get him the ballot.
But I don’t go that far, and haven’t for some time (I think if you were to pull up my hypothetical ballot for 2005 or so you will see Mariano Rivera on their down-ballot using this reasoning). My argument is that all of the runs and outs in a game count the same, and looking at real-time leverage indices overstate the value provided by relievers – what I really want is some kind of average smoothed over the entire game that recognizes that the top relievers generally appear in games which are higher leverage, but doesn’t give them extra credit over the starter who pitched the first 5 1/3 and the relievers who got key outs in the middle innings. I don’t have a solution to that problem, but no matter; it would take Clase’s LI far below 1.57. Unless a reliever was used in a fireman role and pitched 100+ innings, there’s no realistic performance that would get one onto my Cy Young ballot. This remains true even as starter workloads continue to get lighter.
NL Cy Young
1. Chris Sale, ATL
2. Zack Wheeler, PHI
3. Paul Skenes, PIT
4. Reynaldo Lopez, ATL
5. Hunter Greene, CIN
I actually have Wheeler ahead of Sale in both RAR (65 to 64) and eRAR (62 to 58), but Sale’s large lead in dRAR (67 to 50) is enough for me to flip the order. Sale had lower RAs in both cases, but the 22 additional innings thrown by Wheeler outweight the performance differences until you get to DIPS, as Sale allowed a .315 BABIP to Wheeler’s .254. The rest of my ballot follows the RAR order, although one could certainly make a case for Logan Webb, who was second in the league in dRAR (although at 53 well behind Sale) thanks to allowing a .317 BABIP.
AL MVP
1. CF Aaron Judge, NYA
2. SS Bobby Witt, KC
3. RF Juan Soto, NYA
4. SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL
5. SP Tarik Skubal, DET
6. 3B Jose Ramirez, CLE
7. 1B Vladimir Guerrero, TOR
8. SP Seth Lugo, KC
9. CF Jarren Duran, BOS
10. DH Yordan Alvarez, HOU
Aaron Judge was obviously the best player in the AL statistically, and as the captain of the team with the best record, even the old school “value” truthers would have a hard time disputing that. The most interesting thing to me is that Witt v. Henderson was briefly a contentious topic, only to fade away in the second half. I fully concur with the consensus that Witt was more valuable in 2024, but at the risk of opining where I need not have, if you forced me to pick going forward I’d go with Henderson. Witt’s BABIP advantage of .359 to .323 was the main driver of their difference in offensive value this year, with essentially the same ISO and a higher walk rate for Henderson. Gunnar is a full year younger and depending on which fielding metric you ask, he’s not as far off Witt with the glove as reputation might suggest. The rest of the ballot can be explained by Guerrero and Alvarez losing some runs thanks to baserunning and fielding while Ramirez and especially Duran gained ground.
NL MVP
1. DH Shohei Ohtani, LA
2. SP Chris Sale, ATL
3. SS Francisco Lindor, NYN
4. SP Zack Wheeler, PHI
5. 2B Ketel Marte, ARI
6. DH Marcell Ozuna, ATL
7. 1B Bryce Harper, PHI
8. SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN
9. SP Paul Skenes, PIT
10. SP Reynaldo Lopez, ATL
Last year I made the following comment about Shohei Ohtani when placing him first on my hypothetical AL MVP ballot:
The other question is how does this Ohtani season compare with his other two MVP-worthy seasons? In 2021 I estimated him 92 RAR all-in, in 2022 95, and here 102. Comparing across seasons, we need to take run environment into account – using the quick formula RPW = .75*RPG + 3, those translate into 9.1, 10.4, and 10.6 WAR. Sadly, that upward trajectory won’t continue given his lack of availability on the mound in 2024, but what a remarkable three-year run that were it not for Aaron Judge’s monster season a year ago would have netted three trophies.
I thought this was a safe comment to make, and it still wound up being technically true, but he made quite a run at it. I credit Ohtani with 95 RAR, plus one as a baserunner. Given the NL average R/G (excluding extra innings) of 4.39 and applying the RPW conversion described above, that’s good for 10.0 WAR. Better than his 2021 AL MVP season but a still a slight decline from his past two seasons.
This ballot is very well explained by the RAR figures; I’ll note that estimates of De La Cruz’s fielding varied widely (-2 DRS, -8 UZR, but +11 Statcast) which in the end is a wash for me but might not be if you have a strong preference. I will just note that if two years ago you’d tell me that I’d have a pair of then thirty-something middle relievers on my 2024 hypothetical MVP ballots I would have not believe it (I speak of course of Seth Lugo and Reynaldo Lopez).